Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces from 12th Feb – 15th Feb

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 65.4 mm in Ratnapura on 5th Feb but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

 • From 1st Feb - 8th Feb, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced in the sea area surrounding the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northwestern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th – 15^th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 75 mm - Uva 
• 65 mm - Central, North Central
• 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
• 45 mm - North Western, Northern

From 16^th – 22^nd February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Eastern, Northern
• 25 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva, Western 
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 9^th February – 23^rd February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 2, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-June 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Northwestern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (12^th February – 15^th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western province during 12^th February – 19^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 9^th February – 23^rd February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.