Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 27 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 26 Feb - 2 Mar.

·         Between 19 - 25 Feb: up to 140 mm of rainfall was recorded in Mannar district on the 22^nd.

·         From 18 - 24 Feb: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th February	No Rainfall.
20th   February	Up to 70 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Trincomalee and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in Kandy district.
21st February	Up to 50 mm Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Kandy, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa districts.
22nd February	Up to 140 mm in Mannar district; and up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
23rd February	Up to 10 mm in Monaragala district.
24th February	No Rainfall.
25th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Badulla and Anuradhapura districts; up to 25-0 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Monaragala Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Mannar district; and up to 25-50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Kurunegala district; and up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 26^th Feb - 3^rd Mar: No Rainfall.
From 4^th – 10^th Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19^th – 24^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall enhance in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 20 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 19 - 24 Feb.

·         Between 11 - 16 Feb: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle district on the 15^th

·         From 11 - 17 Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
11th February	Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.
12th   February	Up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Colombo districts and up to 20 mm in Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
13th February	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
14th February	No Rainfall.
15th February	Up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
16th February	No Rainfall.
17th February	No Rainfall.
18th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ampara district; and up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 19^th – 25^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 35-45 mm in Hambantota, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Puttalam, Gampaha and Matara districts.
From 26^th Feb - 3^rd Mar: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Colombo,Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15-25 mm in most parts of the island.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19^th – 24^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 13, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during early February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor near-borderline El Niño SST conditions during late winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, stating that overall conditions are neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 13 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in the southern half of the island during 12 - 18 Feb.

•  Between 4 - 10 Feb: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 5^th.

•  From 4 - 10Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
4th February	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
5th   February	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts and up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Kegalle, Monaragala and Hambantota districts .
6th February	No Rainfall.
7th February	No Rainfall.
8th February	No Rainfall.
9th February	No Rainfall.
10th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Hambantota, Ampara and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 12^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
From 19^th – 25^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Matale and Anuradhapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 13^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 6 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 5 - 10 Feb.

·         Between 29 Jan - 3 Feb: up to 5 mm of rainfall was recorded in southern regions of the island on the 3^rd.

·         From 28 Jan - 3 Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·         1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
29th January	No Rainfall.
30th   January	No Rainfall.
31st January	No Rainfall.
1st February	No Rainfall.
2nd February	No Rainfall.
3rd February	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 2-5 mm in Hambantota district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in the rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of the Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below-average rainfall conditions, up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 5^th – 11^th Feb: No Rainfall.

From 12^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 5^th – 10^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.