Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 20 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 19 - 24 Feb.

·         Between 11 - 16 Feb: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle district on the 15^th

·         From 11 - 17 Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
11th February	Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.
12th   February	Up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Colombo districts and up to 20 mm in Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
13th February	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
14th February	No Rainfall.
15th February	Up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
16th February	No Rainfall.
17th February	No Rainfall.
18th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ampara district; and up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 19^th – 25^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 35-45 mm in Hambantota, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Puttalam, Gampaha and Matara districts.
From 26^th Feb - 3^rd Mar: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Colombo,Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15-25 mm in most parts of the island.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19^th – 24^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 13, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during early February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor near-borderline El Niño SST conditions during late winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, stating that overall conditions are neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.