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Friday, January 28, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (28 January 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces from 29th Jan – 1st Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.
 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Western province with max of 58.6 mm in Colombo district on 24th Jan but it was dry on other days and other places.
 • From 18th Jan - 25th Jan, up to 35 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 26th January – 1st February 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 55 mm - Northern
  • 45 mm - North Central, Uva
  • 25 mm - Central
  • 15 mm - North Western
  •  5 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
From 2nd – 8th February
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 45 mm - Northern
  • 35 mm - North Central, Uva
  • 15 mm - Central
  •  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be neutral during 29th – 30th January. MJO shall be active during 31st January – 9th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 19, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
 During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C – 30C above neutral in some parts of the Southern and Western provinces and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (29th January – 1st February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 29th January – 4th February
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be neutral during 29th – 30th January. MJO shall be active during 31st January – 9th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, January 21, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 January 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 22nd Jan – 25th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.
 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Northern province with max of 143.3 mm in Jaffna district on 17th Jan.
 • From 11th Jan - 18th Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 19th – 25th  January 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - North Central, Uva
  • 25 mm - Northern
  •  5 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
From 26th January – 1st February
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - North Central, Northern, Uva
  • 15 mm - Central
  •  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 22nd – 28th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22nd – 23rd January and to the entire island from 24th - 28th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9th January – 2nd February to the entire island. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 12, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Northern. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C – 30C above neutral in some parts of Sabaragamuwa district and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (22nd January – 25th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 22nd January – 29th January
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active during 22nd – 28th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22nd – 23rd January and to the entire island from 24th - 28th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9th January – 2nd February to the entire island. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, January 14, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 January 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 15th Jan – 18th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.
 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.
 • From 3rd Jan - 10th Jan, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 12th – 18th  January 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 95 mm - Eastern
  • 75 mm - North Central 
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 45 mm - Central, Northern 
  • 35 mm - Southern
  • 25 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa 
  • 15 mm - Western
From 19th – 25th  January
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 105 mm - Eastern
  •  75 mm - Uva
  •  65 mm - North Central
  •  35 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
  •  25 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  15 mm - Western, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 15th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to the entire island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 5, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the early-January. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (15th January – 18th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western province and slightly below normal in the Nuwara Eliya district during 15th January – 22nd January
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 15th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Friday, January 7, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 January 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces from 8th Jan – 11th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.
 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.
 • From 28th Dec 2021 - 4th Jan 2022, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 8th – 11th  January 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 115 mm - Eastern
  • 105 mm - Uva
  •  85 mm - North Central
  •  75 mm - Southern
  •  65 mm - Central, Northern, Sabaragamuwa
  •  45 mm - North Western, Western
From 12th – 18th  January
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 55 mm - Uva
  • 45 mm - North Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Southern
  • 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western 
  • 15 mm - North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 8th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8th – 14th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15th – 19th January for the entire island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 29, 2021 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the late-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, a slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C - 30C above neutral for some parts of Central, and Sabaragamuwa provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (8th January – 11th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 8th January – 15th January for the entire island.
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 8th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8th – 14th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15th – 19th January for the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.