Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for
Eastern and Northern provinces from 29th Jan – 1st Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater
likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.
• Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in
the Western province with max of 58.6 mm in Colombo district on 24th Jan but it was dry on other
days and other places.
• From 18th Jan - 25th Jan, up to 35 km/h Northeasterlies were
experienced across the island.
• Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and
neutral around the rest of the island.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 26th January – 1st February:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 85 mm - Eastern
- 55 mm - Northern
- 45 mm - North Central, Uva
- 25 mm - Central
- 15 mm - North Western
- 5 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
From 2nd – 8th February:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 75 mm - Eastern
- 45 mm - Northern
- 35 mm - North Central, Uva
- 15 mm - Central
- 5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO
shall be neutral
during 29th – 30th January. MJO shall be
active during 31st
January – 9th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the
entire island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 19, 2022
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are
below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large
majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until
Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea
surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North
Western seas and neutral
around the rest of the island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following
provinces: Western.
Wind:
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature
anomalies were 10C – 30C above neutral in some parts of the
Southern and Western provinces and neutral for the entire island last week,
driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (29th January – 1st
February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in
the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 29th
January – 4th February.
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored
to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be neutral during 29th – 30th January. MJO shall be active during 31st January – 9th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced
probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.