Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 15th Jan – 18th Jan. Greater likelihood of
wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.
• Very heavy rainfall was experienced in
the Eastern
province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa
district on 3rd Jan.
• From 3rd Jan - 10th Jan, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were
experienced across the island.
• Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the
rest of the island.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 12th – 18th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 95 mm - Eastern
- 75 mm - North Central
- 65 mm - Uva
- 45 mm - Central, Northern
- 35 mm - Southern
- 25 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 15 mm - Western
From 19th – 25th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 105 mm - Eastern
- 75 mm - Uva
- 65 mm - North Central
- 35 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
- 25 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 15 mm - Western, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be active during 15th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to
the entire island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 5, 2022
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are
below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the early-January.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large
majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña
during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to
dissipate in Mar-May 2022.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea
surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern seas
and neutral around the rest of
the island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern,
Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.
Wind:
Northeasterly winds
prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature
anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm
SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (15th January – 18th
January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva
provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in
the Western province and slightly below normal in the Nuwara Eliya district
during 15th January – 22nd January.
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored
to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 15th – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to
the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced
probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.
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