Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (28 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces from 29th Jan – 1st Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Western province with max of 58.6 mm in Colombo district on 24th Jan but it was dry on other days and other places.

 • From 18th Jan - 25th Jan, up to 35 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 26^th January – 1^st February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - Northern
• 45 mm - North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - North Western
•  5 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

From 2^nd – 8^th February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - Northern
• 35 mm - North Central, Uva
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be neutral during 29^th – 30^th January. MJO shall be active during 31^st January – 9^th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 19, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

 During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C above neutral in some parts of the Southern and Western provinces and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^th January – 1^st February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 29^th January – 4^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be neutral during 29^th – 30^th January. MJO shall be active during 31^st January – 9^th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.