Highlights
• During 24th-28th June, fairly heavy
rainfall (>75mm) is predicted for Kalutara, Colombo & Galle districts;
and showers (>55 mm) will occur in Ratnapura & Puttalam districts.
• During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri
Lanka was 4.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 3.6 mm on average.
• From 13th - 19th June, up
to 8 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
• Sea surface temperature was observed to be
above average of 0.5°C to the north, east and south of the island. Land surfacetemperature remained near normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 22nd – 28th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 85 mm - Western
- 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
- 55 mm - North-western
- 25 mm - Uva, Central
- 15 mm - Eastern, North-central, Northern
From 29th June– 05th July:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 105 mm - Southern
- 85 mm - North-western
- 55 mm - Uva, Central
- 35 mm - North Central, Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO
shall slightly
enhance the rainfall during 22nd - 1st July;
and near neutral during 2nd - 6th July.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 15, 2022
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the north, east and south of the island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Ratnapura
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (14th - 21st June) = 4.9 mm
Rmax: 78.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 3.6 mm |
Eastern | 5.5 mm |
Western | 4.9 mm |
Southern Plains | 5.5 mm |
The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.6 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 43 mm & Rmin: 0 mm.
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies were below-normal to the north-east of the country and near-normal for the rest, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (24th - 28th June) fairly heavy rainfall (>75 mm) is predicted for the Kalutara, Colombo and Galle districts and showers (>55 mm) will occur in Ratnapura and Puttalam districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, Uva and Eastern provinces during 24th – 29th June.
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 22nd - 1st July; and near neutral during 2nd - 6th July.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and a tendency for the neutral tercile for the rest of the districts.
