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Friday, June 10, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 June 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Very High rainfall (>100mm) is predicted in total for Ratnapura; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.8 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 10.8 mm on average.
 • From 30th May - 5th June, up to 15 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 8th – 14th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  95 mm - Western
  •  85 mm - Southern
  •  45 mm - North-western
  •  35 mm - Central, Uva
  •  15 mm - North-central
From 15th – 21th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Western, Southern
  •  75 mm - North Western
  •  65 mm - Central
  •  55 mm - Uva
  •  45 mm - North Central
  •  25 mm - Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8th - 12th June; near neutral during 13th – 17th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18th – 22nd June. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 1, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kegalle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31th May - 7th June) = 2.8 mm
Rmax: 64.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.1 mm

Eastern

0.1 mm

Western

7.6 mm

Southern Plains

1.5 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 86 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Western, North central and North western, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (8th - 14th June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Ratnapura district; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Uva and Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 8th - 16th June
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8th - 12th June; near neutral during 13th – 17th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18th – 22nd June. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the north province.

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