Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (17 June 2022)

  

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 16th-21st June

 • During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.4 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 2.9 mm on average.

 • From 6th - 12th June, up to 15 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east and south of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 15^th – 21^st June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

•  145 mm - Western
•  125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
•  95 mm - North-western
•  65 mm - Central, Uva
•  55 mm - Eastern
•  45 mm - North-central, Northern

From 22^nd – 28^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 115 mm - Western
•  95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
•  75 mm - North-western
•  45 mm - Uva
•  35 mm - Central, Eastern
•  25 mm - North Central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 15^th - 19^th June; and near neutral during 20^th – 29^th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 8, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east and south of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Kalutara

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (6^th - 13^th June) = 1.4 mm

Rmax: 37.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.2 mm
Eastern	1.0 mm
Western	3.3 mm
Southern Plains	0.2 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 2.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week 

Rmax: 27.4 mm & Rmin: 0 mm 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-normal, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (17^th - 21^st June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Uva and Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 16^th – 22^nd June. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 15^th - 19^th June; and near neutral during 20^th – 29^th June.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows above-normal precipitation for the north of the country.