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Friday, March 4, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 March 2022)




 • Above 100mm Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern and North Central  provinces from 3rd  – 9th Mar.
 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the North Central province with a max of 142.6 mm in Polonnaruwa on 23rd Feb while the other provinces received   less.
 • From 23th Feb - 1nd Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal to the Southern and Eastern while neutral around the rest of the island.



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 3rd – 9th March
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 125 mm - Northern 
  • 115 mm - Eastern
  • 105 mm - North Central
  •  95 mm - Central
  •  85 mm - North Western
  •  65 mm - Uva
  •  45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  •  25 mm - Southern
From 10th – 16th March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 95 mm - Central
  • 85 mm - North Western
  • 65 mm - Eastern, North Central
  • 55 mm - Uva, Sabaragamuwa
  • 45 mm - Western, Southern
  • 35 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active from 3rd – 17th March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 3rd – 12th March; and neutral during 13th – 17th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: February 23, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal to the Southern and Eastern while neutral around the rest of the island. 


During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: North Central. 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

During the next week (3rd – 9th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern and North Central provinces.
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western and Uva province during 5th – 13th March
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active from 3rd – 17th March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 3rd – 12th March; and neutral during 13th – 17th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

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