Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 March 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Above 100mm Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern and North Central  provinces from 3rd  – 9th Mar.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the North Central province with a max of 142.6 mm in Polonnaruwa on 23rd Feb while the other provinces received   less.

 • From 23th Feb - 1nd Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal to the Southern and Eastern while neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3^rd – 9^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 125 mm - Northern 
• 115 mm - Eastern
• 105 mm - North Central
•  95 mm - Central
•  85 mm - North Western
•  65 mm - Uva
•  45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
•  25 mm - Southern

From 10^th – 16^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Central
• 85 mm - North Western
• 65 mm - Eastern, North Central
• 55 mm - Uva, Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Western, Southern
• 35 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 3^rd – 17^th March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 3^rd – 12^th March; and neutral during 13^th – 17^th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 23, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal to the Southern and Eastern while neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: North Central. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (3^rd – 9^th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern and North Central provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western and Uva province during 5^th – 13^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 3^rd – 17^th March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 3^rd – 12^th March; and neutral during 13^th – 17^th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.