Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 March 2022)

  

Highlights          

                   

 • The Central province is expected to receive up to 85 mm of fairly heavy rainfall from 9th - 15th Mar, while the North Western, North Central, and Eastern provinces are expected to receive up to 55mm.

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern, Uva, Southern, Central &  Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 72.5 mm in Inginiyagala on 2nd Mar.

 • From 28th Feb - 6th Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th – 15^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Central
• 55 mm - North Central, Eastern, North Western
• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Southern, Eastern, Uva

From 16^th – 22^nd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Central
• 85 mm - North Western
• 65 mm - North Central, Eastern, Uva
• 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Western, Southern
• 35 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 9^th – 23^rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9^th – 18^th March; and neutral during 19^th – 23^th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 2, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-March. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: Eastern, Uva, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Central.

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central and North Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (9^th – 15^th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, North Western, North Central and Eastern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Western province during 11^th – 19^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 9^th – 23^rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9^th – 18^th March; and neutral during 19^th – 23^th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.