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Friday, March 11, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 March 2022)




 • The Central province is expected to receive up to 85 mm of fairly heavy rainfall from 9th - 15th Mar, while the North Western, North Central, and Eastern provinces are expected to receive up to 55mm.
 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern, Uva, Southern, Central &  Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 72.5 mm in Inginiyagala on 2nd Mar.
 • From 28th Feb - 6th Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 9th – 15th March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Central
  • 55 mm - North Central, Eastern, North Western
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Southern, Eastern, Uva
From 16th – 22nd March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 95 mm - Central
  • 85 mm - North Western
  • 65 mm - North Central, Eastern, Uva
  • 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 45 mm - Western, Southern
  • 35 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active from 9th – 23rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9th – 18th March; and neutral during 19th – 23th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 2, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-March. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. 


During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: Eastern, Uva, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Central.
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central and North Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

During the next week (9th – 15th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, North Western, North Central and Eastern provinces.
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Western province during 11th – 19th March. 
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active from 9th – 23rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9th – 18th March; and neutral during 19th – 23th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

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