Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 March 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 75 mm of fairly heavy rainfall is expected to receive for the Central province from 18th - 23rd March while other provinces are expected to receive less.

 • Western & Southern provinces have received heavy rainfall in the last two weeks, with a max of 126.5 mm in the Gampaha area on 12 Mar, and the majority of the island has received less.

 • From 8th - 14th March, up to 6m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Central
• 45 mm - North Western
• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern, Uva
• 25 mm - North Central

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Central
• 55 mm - North Western, North Central, Eastern
• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Southern
• 15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17^th – 21^st March; and slightly enhance during 22^nd – 31^st March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 9, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western and Southern.

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Norther province and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (18^th – 23^rd March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces during 19^th – 27^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17^th – 21^st March; and slightly enhance during 22^nd – 31^st March.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.