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Friday, March 18, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 March 2022)



 • Up to 75 mm of fairly heavy rainfall is expected to receive for the Central province from 18th - 23rd March while other provinces are expected to receive less.
 • Western & Southern provinces have received heavy rainfall in the last two weeks, with a max of 126.5 mm in the Gampaha area on 12 Mar, and the majority of the island has received less.
 • From 8th - 14th March, up to 6m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island.



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 17th – 23rd March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Central
  • 45 mm - North Western
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern, Uva
  • 25 mm - North Central
From 24th – 30th March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Central
  • 55 mm - North Western, North Central, Eastern
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Southern
  • 15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17th – 21st March; and slightly enhance during 22nd – 31st March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 9, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island. 


During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western and Southern.
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Norther province and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

During the next week (18th – 23rd March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province.
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces during 19th – 27th March
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).
MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17th – 21st March; and slightly enhance during 22nd – 31st March.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.

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