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Friday, April 22, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 April 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 85 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  for the entire Island during 22nd - 26th  April.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 8.5 mm and hydro catchment areas have received  up to 6.9 mm on average.
 • From 11th - 17th April, up to 2 - 6 m/s South-westerlies  were experienced over the Island
 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 20th – 26th April
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 75 mm - Northern, North Central
  • 65 mm - Southern, Uva, Central, North Western
  • 55 mm - Eastern
From 27th – 3rd May
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 75 mm - Southern, Northern, North Central
  • 65 mm - Uva, Central, North Western
  • 55 mm - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20th April - 4th May.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: April 6, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 
Ratnapura
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11th - 18th April) = 8.5 mm
Rmax: 73.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

10.7 mm

Eastern

9.9 mm

Western

6.9 mm

Southern Plains

3.7 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 68.4 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (22nd - 26th April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire Island.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces and slightly above normal in the northern and eastern provinces during 22nd – 30th April
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20th April - 4th May. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

1 comment:

  1. climate is longtime condition. Weather is the correct word , I belive

    ReplyDelete