Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (2 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 65 mm expected in Sabaragamuwa provinces during 7^th- 13^th  Apr. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Extremely Dangerous rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa & Western provinces. Up to 222 mm max in Ratnapura and Hambantota.

•  From 23^rd - 29^th March: up to 8 km/h easterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•   Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5⁰ C to the East of Sri Lanka and neutral to the West.
 

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara
• 150 – 200 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya
• 100 – 150 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Moneragala
• 75 – 100 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 50 – 75 mm - Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 50 – 100 mm - Puttalam, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.

  

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th March:

• 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
• 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 14 mm - Matara
• 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
• 10 mm - Puttalam
• 8 mm - Matale
• 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
• 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

11^th – 20^th March:

• 12 mm - Kalutara
• 8 mm - Galle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara
• 6 mm - Hambantota, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 4 mm - Matara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Mannar, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Matale, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 31^st March – 6^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 25 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm - Southern, North western

From 7^th – 13^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Western, Southern
• 45 mm - Uva, Eastern, Central
• 35 mm - North Western
• 25 mm - North Central
• 15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be neutral the rainfall during 30^th Mar – 3^rdApr and significantly suppress during 4^th– 13^th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 24, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5⁰ C to the East of Sri Lanka and neutral to the West.