Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 45 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 15th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere

  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern province with a maximum of  74 mm in Galle on 6th Apr.

•  From 30^th Mar - 05^th Apr: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.

•    Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.
 

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura
• 5 – 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Moneragala, Badulla
• 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuadhapura

Rainfall Deficit

• 50 – 100 mm - Ratnapura
• 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th March:

• 10 mm - Kalutara
• 8 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo, Galle
• 6 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Ampara
• 4 mm - Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale

21^st – 31^st March:

• 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Badulla
• 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
• 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - Northern, North Central, North western, Eastern, Southern, Uva

From 15^th – 21^st April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Central, Uva, Southern
• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - North western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

         MJO shall significantly suppressed the rainfall during 7^th – 16^th Apr and slightly suppressed during 17^th– 21^st Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 31, 2021 

          Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the middle west Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

        Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.