Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 55 mm expected in Central, Western,Sabaragamuwa, Uva provinces during 28th Apr- 04th May with a drop in rainfall elsewhere

  •  Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 132.5 mm in Kegalle on 14th Apr.

•  From 13th  - 19th Apr: up to 4 km/h Southwestly winds were experienced by Southern half of the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.
 

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ratnapura
• 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 50 – 75 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam
• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11^th – 20^th April:

• 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
• 8 mm - Mannar
• 6 mm - Kilinochchi
• 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd – 27^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 45 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Central, Eastern, Southern, North Western
• 15 mm - Northern

From 28^th April – 4^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 55 mm - Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
• 45 mm - Southern
• 35 mm - North Central, North Western, Eastern
• 25 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 23rd– 24th April, slightly suppressed during 25th–29th April and slightly enhanced during 30th April - 4th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 14, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid- April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued LaNiña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.