Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 135mm max in Matara on 10th April.  

•  From 6th - 12th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura
• 100 – 150 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala
•  75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matara
•   50 – 75 mm  - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Galle, Hambantota
•  25 – 50 mm  - Trincomalee, Kilinochchi
•  10 – 25 mm  - Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
•  50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala, Kegalle
•   25 – 50 mm  - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala
•   10 – 25 mm  - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Kandy

Rainfall Deficit

•  50 – 100 mm - Galle
•   25 – 50 mm - Batticaloa, Matale, Matara, Hambantota
•   10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Trincomalee

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st March:

• 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Badulla
• 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
• 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara 
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha   

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 20^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - North Western, Southern
• 55 mm - Central, Uva
• 45 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Northern, North Central

From 21^st – 27^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Southern
• 25 mm - North Western, Central, Uva
• 15 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 13^th – 17^th Apr, slightly suppress during 18^th– 22^nd Apr and slightly enhance during 23^rd – 27^th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 7, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early-April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.