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Friday, June 23, 2023

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 June 2023)

          

Highlights          


 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western, Central and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country during 22 - 28 June.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.7 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 3.4 mm. Highest average rainfall of 2.5 mm/day received in Western region.
 • From 13 - 19 June, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 23 - 29 June, up to 15 m/s of north westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km). 
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from 29- 33ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills. 



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 22nd June – 28th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 - Sabaragamuwa
  • 75 - Southern, Western
  • 65 - Central
  • 55 - Uva
  • 25 - Northern, Eastern, North Western
  • 15 - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 22nd - 26th June, near neutral during 27th June – 1st July, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 2nd - 6th July for Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 20, 2023 
El Nino Mode has set in now according to NOAA. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-June. El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the country in 30th May - 5th June, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.

 

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas: Kegalle, Ampara
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (14th June – 21st June) = 1.7 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 30.5 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.  

Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

Maximum

Minimum

Northern

1.0

33.5

27.0

Eastern

1.6

33.2

24.0

Western

2.5

29.8

24.7

Southern

0.2

33.5

26.3









Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Hydro catchment Areas

3.4

32.0

0.0







Wind: North westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Uva, Sabaragamuwa, and Central provinces and some parts of the Northern, Southern, Eastern, and North Western provinces driven by the warm SST’s.


Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (22nd June – 28th June), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western, Central, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Uva, Eastern, Northern, Southern, and North Central provinces during 23rd June – 29th June.
Teleconnections: El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 22nd - 26th June, near neutral during 27th June – 1st July, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 2nd - 6th July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.



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