Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 July 2021)

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Southern Sabaragamuwa, North central & Central provinces during 21st-27th July. 

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Eastern province with max of 50.5 mm in Trincomalee district on 18th July.

  • From 13th- 19th July: up to  15 km/h from the southwesterly were experienced over the island. 

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 75 - 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Jaffna
• 50 – 75 mm  - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna
• 25 – 50 mm  - Gampaha, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalm, Vavuniya
• 10 – 25 mm  - Colombo, Kalutara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm   - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm   -Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm   - Trincomalee
• 2 mm   -Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21^th– 27^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Western, Southern 
• 55 mm - North central, Central
• 45 mm - Uva, North western
• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - Northern

From 28^th July – 3^rd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, North central, Southern
• 35 mm - Central, North western
• 25 mm - Uva
• 15 mm - Northern, Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 20th - 29th Jul; and significantly suppress during 30th Jul – 3rd Aug.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 14, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.