Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  • Showers are predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 20th Jul; Also during 21st-27th for the same regions.  

  • Dangerously heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Sabaragamuwa, Central & Southern provinces with max of 271 mm in Ratnapura district on 9th July.

  • From 6th- 12th July: up to  15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island. 

• Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 - 150 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura
• 75 – 100 mm  - Gampaha, Kegalle, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Trincomalee
• 50 – 75 mm   - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 25 – 50 mm   - Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 25 – 50 mm  - Jaffana, Polonnaruwa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm   - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm   -Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm   - Trincomalee
• 2 mm   -Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 20^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Southern
• 45 mm - Uva, Central
• 35 mm - North western, North central, Northern
• 25 mm - Eastern

From 21^st – 27^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Southern
• 35mm  - Uva, Central, North western
• 15 mm - North central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 16th - 17th Jul; neutral during 18th – 22nd Jul and slightly suppress during 23rd – 27th Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 7, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.