Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted in Western province during 24th - 30th June. Also, from the 1st- 7th July for the same regions.

  •  Showers were experienced in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with a max of 58 mm in Ratnapura on 23rd June.

•  From 16th- 22nd June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 10 – 25 mm - Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badullla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
• 2 – 5 mm - Moneragala, Hambantota 

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Moneragala, Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24^th – 30^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm   - Southern, Northwestern
• 65 mm   - Central
• 35 mm   - Uva, North Central
• 25 mm   - Eastern

From 1^st – 7^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - Northwestern
• 85mm    - Central, Southern
• 45 mm   - Uva, North Central
• 25 mm   - Northern
• 15 mm   - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 23^rd- 27^th Jun; slightly enhance during 28^th Jun – 2^nd Jul and significantly enhance during 3^rd – 7^th Jul. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 16, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.