Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted in Sabaragamuwa province during 1st week. And extremely heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for Western &  Sabaragamuwa regions.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Central & Western provinces with a max of 144 mm in Ratnapura on 13th June.

•  From 9nth- 15th June: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.

•  0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
• 10 – 25 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Matale, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Moneragala
• 10 – 25 mm - Hambantota, Kurunegala, Martara, Ampara, Batticaloa, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st May:

• 12 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 10 mm - Puttalm, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm - Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 95 mm  - Western
• 85 mm  - Northwestern
• 65 mm  - Central, Southern
• 25 mm  - Uva 
• 15 mm  - North Central

From 24^th – 30^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Northwestern
• 95 mm  - Southern
• 85 mm  - Central
• 45 mm  - Uva
• 25 mm  - North Central
• 15 mm  - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th- 30^th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 9, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

0.5⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.