Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted for North-Western province during 1st week period. And dangerously heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for the same region.

  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Northwestern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 346 mm in Dummalasooriy on 3rd June.

•  From 2nd - 8th June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced.

•  SST was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of SL and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
• 100 – 150 mm - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura
• 75 – 100 mm   - Nuwara Eliya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Badulla 
• 50 – 75 mm     - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Moneragala, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm     - Batticaloa
  

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
• 50 – 100 mm   - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, 
• 25 – 50 mm     - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Moneragala, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th May:

• 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara
•  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
•  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
•  4 mm  - Mannar

21^st – 31^st May:

• 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
•  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
•  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10^th – 16^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm   - North western, Central
• 55 mm   - Southern
• 25 mm   - Uva

From 10^th – 16^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 125 mm - North western
• 105 mm - Southern, Central
• 55 mm   - Uva
• 25 mm   - North Central, Eastern, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th– 18^th June and neutral during 19^th–23^rd June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.