Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 October 2020)

 

              Highlights                             

  •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 95 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts during 15th -21st Oct

  •  Between 31st Sep- 6th Oct up to 40 mm received in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts

• From 30th Sep - 6th Oct: North westerly winds up to 10 km/h were experienced in the southern half of the island.

• 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
30th September	Up to 15 mm in Galle and Matara district.
1st October	Up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
2nd October	Up to 40 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts.
3rd October	Up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha. Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara and Moneragala districts.
4th  October	No rainfall.
5th October	No rainfall.
6th October	Up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura district

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala and Ampara districts; and up to 5 – 10 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ratnapura, Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Matara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Hambantota, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 12 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 8 mm in Mannar district; up to 5 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 2 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th October – 14^th October: Total rainfall up to 95 mm in Ratnapura, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; up to 85 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 75 mm in Matara and Puttalam districts; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts; up to 55 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala and Badulla districts; up to 25 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.   

From 15^th October – 21^th October: Total rainfall up to 95 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts; up to 85 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Matara district; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts; up to 55 mm in Hambantota district; up to 45 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts; up to 25 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa district. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress during 7^th-16^th Oct and shall significantly suppress during 17^th–22^nd Oct.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 30, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in Late-September, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.