Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 July 2022)

      

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall  is predicted for Jaffna, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts;The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 15th - 19th July.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.6 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 5.8 mm on average.

 •  From 4th - 10th July, up to 20 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th July – 19^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 25 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• <15 mm - Remaining Provinces

From 20^th July – 26^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm - Northern
• 45 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Uva, Central, Eastern, Western
• 25 mm - North-central, North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral for the country during 13^th - 27^th July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-July. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara-Eliya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (5^th July - 12^th July) = 0.6 mm

Rmax: 33.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.0 mm
Eastern	0.2 mm
Western	1.3 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 5.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 56.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for southern province, driven by the warm SST’s

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (15^th - 19^thJuly) moderate rainfall is predicted for Jaffna, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 15^th – 20^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral for the country during 13^th - 27^th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.