Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 July 2022)

 

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (>100mm) is predicted for Jaffna district and fairly heavy rainfall (75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts during 22nd- 26th July.

 • During the last week ,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 7.3 mm on average.

 • From 11th - 17th July, up to 20 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the Island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th July – 26^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   75 mm - Southern
•   65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•   55 mm - Uva, Central
•   45 mm - Western, Eastern
•   35 mm - North-central, North-western

From 27^th July – 2^nd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central
•   55 mm - Eastern, North-western, Uva
•   45 mm - North-central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral during 20^th - 24^th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th July – 3^rd August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 13, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the Island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Anuradhapura 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11^th July - 18^th July) = 2.9 mm

Rmax: 105.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	2.9 mm
Eastern	4.1 mm
Western	2.6 mm
Southern Plains	0.4 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 7.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 90.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for southern province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd - 26^thJuly) heavy rainfall is predicted for Jaffna districts and fairly heavy rainfall (up to75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 22^nd – 27^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral during 20^th - 24^th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th July – 3^rd August.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.