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Friday, July 22, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 July 2022)

 

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (>100mm) is predicted for Jaffna district and fairly heavy rainfall (75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts during 22nd- 26th July.
 • During the last week ,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 7.3 mm on average.
 • From 11th - 17th July, up to 20 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 •  Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the IslandLand surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 20th July – 26th July
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • >100 mm - Northern
  •   75 mm - Southern
  •   65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •   55 mm - Uva, Central
  •   45 mm - Western, Eastern
  •   35 mm - North-central, North-western
From 27th July – 2nd August
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • >100 mm - Northern
  •   65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central
  •   55 mm - Eastern, North-western, Uva
  •   45 mm - North-central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall near neutral during 20th - 24th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th July – 3rd August.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 13, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the Island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Anuradhapura 
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11th July - 18th July) = 2.9 mm
Rmax: 105.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

2.9 mm

Eastern

4.1 mm

Western

2.6 mm

Southern Plains

0.4 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 7.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 90.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for southern province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (22nd - 26thJuly) heavy rainfall is predicted for Jaffna districts and fairly heavy rainfall (up to75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 22nd – 27th July. 
Teleconnections:
La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near neutral during 20th - 24th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th July – 3rd August.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

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