Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 August 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm in all district during 13th -18th August.

•   Between 6th - 12th August: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Matara districts on 6th August and Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts on 8th August.

•   From 4th - 12th August: up to 10 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•   1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
6th August	Up to 30 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, and Hambantota districts; up to 15 mm in Kurunegala and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
7th August	Up to 15 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Badulla district.
8th August	Up to 30 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 20 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Mannar districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Monaragala, Puttalam, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts.
9th August	Up to 20 mm in Galle, Matara, Vavuniya and Ratnapura districts; up to 15 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Hambantota, Badulla, Ampara, Mannar and Monaragala districts; up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale and Kandy districts.
10th August	No rainfall.
11th August	Up to 10 mm in Galle, Ampara, Monaragala and Matara districts.
12th August	No rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Monargala and Kegalle districts; up to 10– 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Jaffna, Polonnauwa, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Hambantota and Batticaloa districts; up to 5 – 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Kurunegala and Matale districts.

Above rainfall average up to 25-50 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts and up to 10-25 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle, Monaragala, and Hambantota distrcts. Below rainfall average up to 10-25 mm in Amapara and Badulla districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 10 mm were experienced by Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Anuradhapura districts; up to 6 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and up to 4 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th August – 19^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kegalle district; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 35 mm in Matale, Badulla, Puttalam, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

From 20^th August – 26^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kegalle district; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 35 mm in Matale, Badulla, Puttalam, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 13^th August – 18^th August: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in all districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 12 - 21 August and become neutral during 22-26 August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.