Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 16 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in western, central and eastern regions during 15- 20 Jan.

•         Between 7 - 14 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Ratnapura districts on the 7^th.

•         From 7- 13 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•        1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
7th   January	Up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Ratnapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Kalutara districts.
8th   January	No Rainfall.
9th   January	No Rainfall.
10th January	No Rainfall.
11th January	Up to 10 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
12th January	Up to 10 mm in the Ratnapura district.
13th January	No Rainfall.
14th  January	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Ratnapura and Galle districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 15^th – 21^st Jan: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
From 22^nd – 28^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo district.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 15^th – 20^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 19, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.