Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 23 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 22- 27 Jan.

•          Between 15 - 20 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in southwestern regions of the island on the 19^th and 20^th

•          From 14- 20 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•          1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
15th January	No Rainfall.
16th   January	No Rainfall.
17th January	Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle and Matara districts.
18th January	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Kalutara districts.
19th January	Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Matara, and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts.
20th January	Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Ampara district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Hambantota, Matale and Ampara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Galle, Matara, Matara, and Ampara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee district; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 22^nd – 28^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
From 29^th Jan – 4^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 22^nd – 27^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.