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Friday, January 29, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 January 2021)

   

                        Highlights                             

  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Batticaloa district during 27th Jan - 3rd Feb. The drop in rainfall over the rest of the country. 
  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Western & Southern provinces during 21th- 27th.Up to 91 mm Highest rainfall in Kalutara on 21st Jan.
  From 20th  - 26th Jan: up to 6 km/h Easterly to Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 5 – 10 mm - Batticaloa
  • 2 –  5 mm  - Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura
Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Deficit
  • 10 – 25 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1st – 10th January:
  • 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
  • 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
  • 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
  •  8 mm  - Jaffna

11th – 20th January:

  • 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  • 16 mm - Vavuniya
  • 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
  • 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 28th – 3rd January:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
135 mm - Eastern
  75 mm - Northern
  65 mm - North-central
  45 mm - Western, Uva, Central, Southern 
  35 mm - North-western, Sabaragamuwa

From 4th – 10thFebruary:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
125 mm - Eastern
 65 mm  - Northern
 55 mm  - North-centralUva
 45 mm  - Central, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
 25 mm  - North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall from 19th Jan– 2nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: January 20, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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