Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (5 February 2021)

    

                        Highlights                             

• Heavy rainfall of 95 mm expected in Eastern province during 4th - 10th Feb. The drop in rainfall over the rest of the country. 

  •  Dangerously Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern & Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 218mm max in Batticaloa on 28th Jan.

•  From 27th  Jan- 2nd Fab: up to 8 km/h Easterly to Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 – 150 mm - Batticaloa, Ampara
•  75  – 100 mm - Moneragala
•  50  –  75 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Trincomalee, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Colombo, Galle
•  25  –  50 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala
• 10  –  25 mm  - Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu
•   2  –  5 mm   - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm  - Ampara
• 50  –  100 mm  - Batticaloa, Moneragala
• 50  –  100 mm  - Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Kandy, Ratnapura
• 50  –  100 mm  - Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Kegalle, Gampaha

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna 

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th January:

• 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 16 mm - Vavuniya
• 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
• 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

21^st – 31^st January:

• 12 mm - Ampara
• 10 mm - Batticaloa
•   6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
•  4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee 
•  2 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 10^thFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

  95 mm - Eastern

  35 mm - Northern, Southern 

  25 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Uva

  15 mm - Western, Central,North-central

  

From 11^th – 17^thFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

105 mm - Eastern

 55 mm  - Northern

 45 mm  - North-central

 35 mm  - Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva

 25 mm  - North-western, Western, Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 3^rd – 17^th Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 27, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.