Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 February 2021)

 

  Highlights                             

•  Showers of 45 mm  expected in Eastern province during 17^th - 23^rd Feb. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 104 mm max in Matara on 14^th Feb.

•  From 9^th- 15^th Feb: up to 4 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near- neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya
• 10 – 25 mm - Kegalle, Galle, Hambantota, Kandy
• 5 – 10 mm - Kalutara, Matale
• 2 – 5 mm - Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Ampara, Batticaloa

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Badulla, Moneragala
• 10 – 25 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa
• 10 – 25 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st January:

• 12 mm - Ampara
• 10 mm - Batticaloa
• 6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

• 2 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1^st – 10^th February:

• 12 mm - Ampara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Kalutara, Galle
• 6 mm - Ratnapura, Matara, Moneragala
• 4 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam,Kurunegala, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Trincomalee

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23rd February:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

  45 mm - Eastern

  

From 24^th  February – 2nd March:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

  25 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 16th – 25th Feb slightly suppress during 26th Feb –2nd March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 10, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in Early-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.