Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 February 2021)

     

                        Highlights                             

•  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern province during 10^th -16^th Feb. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern and Southern provinces. Up to 87mm max in Kalutara on 8^th Feb.

•  From 2^nd- 8^th Feb: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5⁰C to the South of Sri Lanka and neutral to the North.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 – 150 mm - Hambantota, Ampara
• 75 – 100 mm  - Moneragala
• 50 – 75 mm   -  Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura
• 25 – 50 mm  -  Badulla, Batticaloa
• 10 – 25 mm  -  Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Kandy
• 5 – 10 mm   -  Trincomalee, Gampaha
• 2 – 5 mm    - Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Ampara
• 25 – 50 mm - Matara, Ratnapura
• 10 – 25 mm - Badulla

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Kurunegala
• 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th January:

• 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 16 mm - Vavuniya
• 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
• 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

21^st – 31^st January:

• 12 mm - Ampara
• 10 mm - Batticaloa
•   6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
•  4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee 
•  2 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10^th – 16^thFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

  55 mm  - Eastern

  25 mm  - Northern

  

From 17^th – 23rd  February:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

  75 mm -  Eastern

  45 mm -  Northern

  25 mm -  North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 9^th – 13^th Feb slightly suppressed during 14^th – 23rd Feb.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 3, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in Early-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5⁰C to the South of Sri Lanka and neutral to the North.