Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 January 2021)

 

                        Highlights                             

•  Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected  in Eastern province during 14th – 20th Jan.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern & Eastern provinces. Up to 154 mm max rainfall in Mullaitivu district on 11th Jan.

•  From 5th  - 11th Jan: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the northern half of the island.

•  0.5 0Cabove average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Vavuniya
• 100 - 150 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kandy, Matale, Batticaloa, Badulla

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya 
• 50 – 100 mm   - Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Moneragala Batticaloa, Kegalle, Ampara, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, PuttalamAnuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm -Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Ampara, Matale
• 12 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
•  8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 14^th – 20^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

140 mm - Eastern

105 mm - Uva

 85 mm  - Central

 75 mm  - Northern, North-central

 55 mm  - Western, North-western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa

From 21^st – 27^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

 75 mm  - Northern

 45 mm  - North-central

 35 mm  - Western, Central

 25 mm  - Uva, Sabaragamuwa

 15 mm  - Southern, North-western

 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 13^th – 27^th January. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 6, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in early-January, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.