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Friday, January 1, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 January 2021)

 

                        Highlights                             

   Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected  in Northern, North-central and Eastern provinces during 6th – 12th Jan.
  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, & Western provinces. Up to 220 mm max rainfall in Matara on 28th Dec.
  From 22nd - 28th Dec: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced on the East side of the island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5 0C to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East




Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm - Colombo
  • 100 - 150 mm - Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
  • 75 – 100 mm - Matara, Hambantota
  • 50 - 75 mm    - Kegalle, Matale, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 25 – 50 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Ampara, Mannar, Kilinochchi, Badulla
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kandy, Jaffna, Moneragala 

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Colombo
  • 50 – 100 mm   - Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 25 - 50 mm     - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kegalle
  • 10 – 25 mm    - Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Moneragala, Badulla, Jaffna
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kandy, Kilinochchi 

Monthly Monitoring
In the first 10 days in December 2020, there was heavy rainfall was observed in Northern and Western provinces, probably due to cyclone storm “BUREVI”

During December; Dekadal Rainfall by Districts: 
  • 18 mm-Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
  • 16 mm- Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam
  • 10 mm- Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 8 mm  - Ratnapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Ampara
  • 5 mm  - Galle, Matara, Hambantota 

 Predictions


Rainfall


14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 
From 30th December – 5thJanuary:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
140 mm - Northern, Eastern
105 mm - North-central
95 mm  - Uva
85 mm  - Central
55 mm  - North-western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
45 mm  - Western

From 6th – 12th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
140 mm - Northern, North-central, Eastern
115 mm - Central, Uva
105 mm -  North-western
95 mm   - Western, Sabaragamuwa
85 mm   - Southern 


MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29th Dec  –  2nd Jan, have neutral influence  during 3rd – 7th Jan and significantly suppress the rainfall during 8th  – 12th Jan.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 23, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-December, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions

Indian Ocean State

The SST in the Indian Ocean is still warmer by 0.5 degrees than is seasonable to the West of Sri Lanka but near seasonable on the Eastern.

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