Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 January 2021)

                        Highlights                             

•   Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected in Northern and Eastern provinces during 6th – 12th Jan.

  •   Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Eastern & Western provinces. Up to 142 mm max rainfall in Batticaloa on 4th Jan.

•  From 29th Dec - 4th Jan: up to 8 km/h Easterly winds were experienced  by the entire island.

•  0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Ampara, Moneragala
• 100 - 150 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo
• 75 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Puttalam, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 50 - 75 mm    - Galle, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Ampara, Moneragala 
• 50 – 100 mm   - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Badulla, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 - 50 mm     - Galle, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm    - Jaffna, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

During December; Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th December:

• 16 mm-Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kegalle, Jaffna
• 14 mm- Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Moneragala
• 12 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kurunegala
• 10 mm  - Kilinichchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo
• 6 mm  - Puttalam, Hambantota

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm-Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm- Ampara, Matale
• 12 mm- Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm  - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
• 8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th – 12^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

140 mm - Northern, Eastern

115 mm - North-central

105 mm - Central

 85 mm  - Uva, Western

 75 mm  - North-western, Sabaragamuwa

 55 mm  - Southern

From 13^th – 19^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

115 mm - Northern

105 mm - Uva

 75 mm  - North-central

 65 mm  - Central

 55 mm  - Western

 45 mm  - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 5^th – 14^th Jan and have neutral influence during 15^th – 19^th Jan.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 30, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-December and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.