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Friday, January 22, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 January 2021)

  


                        Highlights                             

  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Eastern province during 20th – 26th Jan & dangerously heavy rainfall expected in Batticaloa during 27th Jan - 2nd Feb. 
  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Western, Eastern & Southern provinces.Up to 135 mm max in Ratnapura on 16th  Jan.
  From 12th  - 18th Jan: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced  by the entire island
  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle
  • 150 – 200 mm - Matara
  • 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Kurunegala, Hambantota
  • 75 – 100 mm - Colombo, Batticaloa
  • 50 – 75 mm - Gampaha, Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa
  • 25 – 50 mm - Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 200 – 300 mm - Kalutara
  • 100 – 200 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle
  •  50 – 100 mm  Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Gampaha, Ampara, Batticaloa, Puttalam
  •   25 – 50 mm  - Matale, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannra, Mullaitivu
  •   10 – 25 mm -  Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:
21st – 31st December:

  • 16 mm -Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
  • 14 mm - Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee
  • 12 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
  • 10 mm - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
  •  8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

1st – 10th January:
  • 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
  • 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
  • 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
  •  8 mm  - Jaffna

 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 20th – 26th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
135 mm - Eastern
  55 mm - Northern
  35 mm - North-central
  15 mm - Western, Uva, Central

From 27th January – 2ndFebruary:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
140 mm - Eastern
105 mm - Northern
 95 mm  - North-centralUva
 75 mm  - Central
 65 mm  - Western
 55 mm  - Sabaragamuwa, North-western, Southern
 

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 19th Jan– 2nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: January 13, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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