Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 January 2021)

  

                        Highlights                             

•  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Eastern province during 20th – 26th Jan & dangerously heavy rainfall expected in Batticaloa during 27th Jan - 2nd Feb. 

  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Western, Eastern & Southern provinces.Up to 135 mm max in Ratnapura on 16th  Jan.

•  From 12th  - 18th Jan: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced  by the entire island

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle
• 150 – 200 mm - Matara
• 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Kurunegala, Hambantota
• 75 – 100 mm - Colombo, Batticaloa
• 50 – 75 mm - Gampaha, Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa
• 25 – 50 mm - Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm - Kalutara
• 100 – 200 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle
•  50 – 100 mm  - Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Gampaha, Ampara, Batticaloa, Puttalam
•   25 – 50 mm  - Matale, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannra, Mullaitivu
•   10 – 25 mm -  Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm -Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee
• 12 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
•  8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th – 26^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

135 mm - Eastern

  55 mm - Northern

  35 mm - North-central

  15 mm - Western, Uva, Central

From 27^th January – 2^ndFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

105 mm - Northern

 95 mm  - North-central, Uva

 75 mm  - Central

 65 mm  - Western

 55 mm  - Sabaragamuwa, North-western, Southern

 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 19^th Jan– 2^nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 13, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.