Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (6 May 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 95 mm fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  in Sabaragamuwa,  Western, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western, Uva & Central provinces during 6th-10th May

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 6.6 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 9.9 mm on average.

 • From 25th April - 1st May, up to 3 m/s South-westerlies were experienced over the Island.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ around the Island. Unlike the scorching heat in the rest of South Asia,  land in Sri Lanka remained seasonable.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 10^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Southern
• 65 mm - North Western, Northern, North Central
• 55 mm - Central, Uva
• 45 mm - Eastern

From 11^th – 17^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western
• 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - Southern
•  95 mm - North Western
•  85 mm - Uva, Central, North Central, Northern
•  65 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 4^th - 13^th May and neutral during 14^th – 18^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 27, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the most of the Pacific Ocean in late-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ around the Island. Unlike the scorching heat in the rest of South Asia, land in Sri Lanka remained seasonable.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 

Kalutara

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (25^th April- 2^nd May) = 6.6 mm

Rmax: 107.2 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	4.3 mm
Eastern	6.2 mm
Western	10 mm
Southern Plains	3.3 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 9.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 59 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s. 

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (6^th - 10^th May) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western, Uva and Central provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central provinces and above normal in the eastern, uva and northern province during 6^th - 14^th May. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 4^th - 13^th May and neutral during 14^th – 18^th May.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.