Phone:(+94)81-2376746,4922992   E-mail:climate@sltnet.lk     Website: http://www.climate.lk

Friday, May 27, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (27 May 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy  rainfall above 100 mm is expected  in Sabaragamuwa, Western and Southern  provinces during 25th - 31st May.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.5 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 11.1 mm on average.
 • From 16th - 22nd May, up to 20 m/s of south-westerlies were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be below average of 0.5°C around the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal during the last week.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th – 31st May
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 115 mm - Western, Southern
  • 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  55 mm - North Western, Central
  •  45 mm - Uva
  •  25 mm - North Central, Eastern
  •  15 mm - Northern
From 1st – 7th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 135 mm - Southern, Western
  • 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  65 mm - Central, North Western, Uva
  •  35 mm - North Central, Eastern 
  •  25 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall neutral during 25th - 29th May; shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 30th May – 3rd June and significantly suppress the rainfall during 4th – 8th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 18, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-May. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be below average of 0.5°C around the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Colombo
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th - 24th May) = 4.5 mm
Rmax: 105.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

3.4 mm

Eastern

0.05 mm

Western

9.0 mm

Southern Plains

1.6 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 11.1 mm of average rainfall for the last week.
Rmax: 108 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were slightly below normal for the north central province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (27th - 31st May) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Southern, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces and slightly below normal in the central province during 27thMay - 4th June
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall neutral during 25th - 29th May; shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 30th May – 3rd June and significantly suppress the rainfall during 4th – 8th June.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the north province.

No comments:

Post a Comment