Highlights
• Heavy rainfall above 100 mm is expected in Sabaragamuwa, Western and Southern provinces during 25th - 31st May.
• During the last week, the average daily
rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.5 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 11.1
mm on average.
• From 16th - 22nd May, up to 20 m/s of south-westerlies were experienced over the island.
• Sea surface temperature was observed to be
below average of 0.5°C around the island. Land surface temperature
remained near normal during the last week.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 25th – 31st May:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 115 mm - Western, Southern
- 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 55 mm - North Western, Central
- 45 mm - Uva
- 25 mm - North Central, Eastern
- 15 mm - Northern
From 1st – 7th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 135 mm - Southern, Western
- 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 65 mm - Central, North Western, Uva
- 35 mm - North Central, Eastern
- 25 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO
shall neutral during
25th - 29th May; shall moderately suppress the rainfall
during 30th May – 3rd June and significantly suppress the
rainfall during 4th – 8th June.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 18, 2022
Equatorial sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-May.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of
the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La
Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly
increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be below average of 0.5°C
around the island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two
weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Colombo
Daily Average Rainfall in
the Met stations for previous week of (17th
- 24th May) = 4.5 mm
Rmax: 105.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 3.4 mm |
Eastern | 0.05 mm |
Western | 9.0 mm |
Southern Plains | 1.6 mm |
The Hydro Catchment
Areas recorded 11.1 mm of average rainfall for the last week.
Rmax: 108 mm & Rmin: 0 mm.
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea
area surrounding the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature
anomalies were slightly below normal for the north central province, driven by
the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (27th - 31st May) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is
predicted for the
Southern, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces.Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in
the Northern and Eastern provinces and slightly below normal in the central
province during 27thMay -
4th June.
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for
La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall neutral during 25th - 29th
May; shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 30th May – 3rd
June and significantly suppress the rainfall during 4th – 8th
June.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal
precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the
north province.
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