Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 29 January, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
During 21st to 26th January entire country experienced dry condition. In the coming week Models predicts rainfall less than 55 mm/week for the island except in the western province.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the week entire country experienced dry condition throughout.


Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts received highest average rainfall during the month of December 2013.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 28th January to 3rd February 2014, Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall less than 55 mm except western province. During 4th to 10th February country shall remain dry.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 30th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall over the entire country except in the western province ranging between 2.5 to 35.6 mm/day. Similar condition shall remain for the 31st January. Model predicts heavy rainfall for the Matara and Galle districts up to 64.5 mm/day. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 50mm/day for the country except for western and north western provinces for the coming week.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall increase gradually for the first week of February. The rainfall shall vary less than 5mm/day. Similar rainfall pattern prevails for Western Slopes. For Western Coast, Northern, Southern and Eastern parts of the country continous data is not available for the first week of February.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on December 2013; for December 2013 to March 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE January 16, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature and -10C anomaly for rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 19th - 25th January 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is not active in the Indian Ocean but in the Pacific.