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Thursday, January 16, 2014

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 16 January, 2014


Monitoring and Prediction
During 7th January North central province of the island received heavy rainfall ranging up to 30 mm/day. In the coming week Models predicts heavy rainfall conditions for eastern, central and western provinces of the country ranging up to 35mm/week.

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Weekly Monitoring:During 7th January North central province of the country received heavy rainfall ranged up to 30 mm/day. During 8th January northern districts received moderate rainfall less than 10mm/day. During 12th and 13th January over the eastern SriLankan Sea rainy conditions ranged up to 180mm/day was observed.

Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts received highest average rainfall during the month of December 2013.


7-day prediction:During 15th-21st January 2014, Sri Lanka shall experience moderate rainy condition with rainfall less than 5 mm/day. A cumulative total of between 15-35 mm is expected over this week.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 17th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall all over the country except the northern most parts. Rainfall ranges between 2.5mm and 64.5mm/day. Central, Uva and Eastern provinces are expected to get heavy rainfall more than 35.5mm/day. For 18th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall more than 7.5 mm for Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts. Kandy and Batticaloa districts shall receive rainfall more than 2.5 mm during the day. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 50mm/day for the eastern, central and western parts of the country.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall increase gradually from 19th to 26th of January. The rainfall shall vary less than 4mm/day. Western Slopes –Rainfall shall increase gradually from about 5 to 10mm/day during 19th-24th January.For Western Coast, Northern, Southern and Eastern parts continous data is not available till 24th of January.

Seasonal Prediction::As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on December 2013; for December 2013 to March 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE December 19, 2013 :During November through early December the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into early 2014.. During northern spring and Summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature and -1 degrees C anomaly for rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 5th -11th January 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO state is neutral.

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