Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 02 January, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
A decrease in rainfall compared to normal was observed over the country from 24th -29th December. The North- Eastern provinces are likely to receive significant rainfall during 2nd and 3rd January. The models predict rainy conditions less than 7.5 mm over the other parts of the country during this period. Overall the first week of January is likely to have rainfall up to 35 mm for the 1-7th period.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring: During 24th December Central province got rainfall ranging from 5-10 mm/day. Maximum rainfall observed on 24th December for Kandy, and some parts of Badulla district. Rest of the days received lower amount of rainfall compared to the beginning of the week.


Monthly Monitoring:Nuwara-Eliya, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts received highest average rainfall during the month of November 2013.

Predictions

7-day prediction:During 1st -7th January 2014, entire Sri Lanka shall experience a mild rainfall condition less than 55 mm. Eastern parts of the country shall experience heavy rainfall compared to the other parts of the country.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 2nd of January, IMD WRF model predicts less than 2.5 mm of rainfall for Eastern province and rest of the regions shall remain dry. For 3rd of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall more than 64.5 mm of rainfall for Eastern and central province. Rest of the country shall receive rainfall less than 7.5 mm/day. IRI model predicts heavy rainfall less than 100mm for the northern and northwestern provinces. Rest of the country will receive rainfall less than 75mm.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall increase gradually till 3rd of January. After that rainfall shall decrease. Western Slopes –Rainfall shall increase gradually about 14mm during 1st-4th January and it shall decrease gradually thereafter. Western Coast – Rainfall shall increase up to 10 mm/day till 4th January. Eastern Slopes– Rainfall shall increase slightly till 3rd of January below 3mm/day. No data is available thereafter. Eastern Coast – The rainfall shall increase till 3rd January. Thereafter data is not available. Northern region shall follow the similar conditions as eastern coast. Southern Region- The rainfall is likely increasing between 2-6 mm/day till 3rd January.

Seasonal Prediction::As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on December 2013; for December 2013 to March 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE December 19, 2013 :During November through early December the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into early 2014.. During northern spring and Summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Southern sea of Sri Lanka showed +10C anomaly and rest of the seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral seas surface temperature during 22nd-28th December 2013.
MJO STATE :MJO state is neutral.