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Monday, January 13, 2014

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 09 January, 2014


Monitoring and Prediction
An increasing trend in rainfall observed over the northern part of the country from 3rd -5th January as a result of the formation of deep depression in Northwestern parts of the Sri Lankan Sea. However, Central and Southerrn provinces are likely to experience moderate rainfall during 7th and 12th January. The models predict rainy conditions between 7.5 and 35.5 mm over the country.

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Weekly Monitoring: During 2nd to 6th January Northern coasts of the country received heavy rainfall ranged up to 80 mm/day. Maximum rainfall observed on 5th January for Jaffna, and some parts of Northern Province. Presence of a deep depression in the northern Sri Lankan sea imparts heavy rainfall conditions over the Jaffna district. Jaffna, Mullativu, Killinochchi and eastern districts experience almost similar rainy condition.

Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts received highest average rainfall during the month of December 2013.


7-day prediction:During 7th-12h January 2014, except the southern parts, Sri Lanka shall experience moderate rainy condition with rainfall less than 50 mm/day.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 10th of January, IMD WRF model predicts rainfall between 7.5 mm and 35.5 mm/day for Central and southern parts of the country and rest of the regions shall remain dry. For 9th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall more than 35.5 mm for almost all part of the country.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall decrease gradually from 7th of January. The rainfall shall vary less than 5mm/day. Western Slopes –Rainfall shall decrease gradually from about 16mm during 7st-12th January. Western Coast – Similar pattern as Western slopes. Continous data is not available for Northern, Southern and Eastern parts till 12th of January.

Seasonal Prediction::As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on December 2013; for December 2013 to March 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE December 19, 2013 :During November through early December the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into early 2014.. During northern spring and Summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed -10C anomaly and rest of the seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature during 29th December 2013-4th January 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO state is neutral.

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