Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 23 January, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
During 15th January Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts received heavy rainfall ranging up to 120 mm/day. In the coming week the weather and climate models predicts dry conditions over the island.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 15th to 17th central parts of the country received rainfall up to 120 mm/day. Rest of the week experienced dry condition throughout.


Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts received highest average rainfall during December 2013.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 22th January-4th February 2014, Sri Lanka shall experience relatively dry condition throughout the weeks.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 24th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall over the northern region and eastern coast. Rainfall ranges between 2.5mm and 35.6mm/day. Rest of the country shall remain dry. For 25th of January, IMD WRF model predicts heavy rainfall more than 2.5 mm for Ampara and Badulla districts. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 25mm/day over the country for the coming week.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall increase gradually from 22nd of January. The rainfall shall vary less than 6mm/day. Western Slopes –Rainfall shall decrease from 24th to 28th of January and gradually increase from 28th within the range 5 to 10mm/day. For Western Coast, Northern, Southern and Eastern parts continous data is not available till 28th of January.

Seasonal Prediction::As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on December 2013; for December 2013 to March 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE January 16, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature and -1 degrees C anomaly for rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 12th -18th January 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is not active in the Indian Ocean but in the Pacific.