Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 6 February, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
During 27th January to 4th February entire country experienced dry condition. In the coming week Models predicts rainfall less than 25 mm/week for the island except in the northern and northwestern provinces.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the week entire country experienced dry condition throughout.


Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Matale and Ratnapura districts received rainfall during the month of January 2014 within the range 1 to 4 mm/day.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 5th to 11th February 2014, Sri Lanka shall have a dry condition throughout. During 12th to 18th February Northern parts of the country shall receive rainfall less than 35 mm/week.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 7th of February, IMD WRF model predicts dry conditions over the entire country. For 8th February Batticaloa district shall receive moderate rainfall up to 2.5 mm/day. Other parts of the country shall remain dry. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 25 mm/day for the country except for northern and north western provinces for the coming week.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall vary between 2 to 4 mm/day till 12th February. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall vary between 6 to 12 mm/day and there will be a slight increase in the rainfall till 12th February. Western Coast shall follow the similar pattern within the range 2 to 8 mm/day. For Northern and Eastern parts of the country continuous data is not available.Southern Region- As light increase in the rainfall can be seen in the southern parts .

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on January 2014; for February 2014 to Apri l 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological .

PACIFIC SEAS STATE January 16, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature and -1 degrees C anomaly for rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 26th January -1st February 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.