Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 13 February, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
The existing dry condition shall persist till 15th of February 2014. However during next week southern half of the island shall be wetter than the northern half of the island. No significant rainfall events are expected.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the week entire country experienced dry condition throughout.


Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Matale and Ratnapura districts received rainfall during the month of January 2014 within the range 1 to 4 mm/day.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 11th to 17th February 2014, Sri Lanka shall have a dry condition throughout, except for Galle and Kalutara districts (less than 5 mm/day). During 18th to 24th February, Sri Lanka shall have a dry condition throughout, except for Galle district shall receive more rainfall than the previous week.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 13th of February, IMD WRF model predicts dry conditions over the entire country. For the same day, patches of Galle and Nuwara Eliya districts shall receive less than 3 mm of rainfall. For 14th February, the borders of Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts shall receive less than 8 mm of rainfall. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 25mm/week for the southern half of the island for the coming week (11th-16th February 2014).

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Dry condition shall persist till 15th February and rainfall shall increase slightly till 18th. But amount of rainfall shall be less than 4 mm/day. These shall no significant rainfall events experience during this week. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall increase gradually till 24th of February. Western Coast- Rainfall shall increase gradually till 20th of February. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall is not predicted till 17th and thereafter rainfall shall increase slowly. Eastern Coast- Rainfall is not predicted for most of the period till the end of the month. Slight rainfall incident shall observe during 17th-22nd February. Northern- Rainfall shall vary below 3mm/day till the end of February. Southern Region- Dry condition shall persists till 16th February and rainfall shall increase thereafter.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on January 2014; for February 2014 to Apri l 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological .

PACIFIC SEAS STATE January 16, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed -1 degree C anomaly cold sea surface temperature around western side of Sri Lanka and for normal seas surface temperature observed rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 2nd-8th February 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.