- The IMD WRF model predicts up to 125 mm of rainfall in Colombo district on 31st March.
- Between 22-28 Mar: highest rainfall of 60 mm was recorded on the 27th in Ratnapura and Galle districts
- From 19-25 Mar: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Puttalam and Kurunegala recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 21-27 Mar: up to 14 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the northern regions, and speeds less than 10 km/h in the southern regions of the island
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the Northern and Eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period March 22nd-26th. On March 27th Ratnapura and Galle districts received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Kalutara district up to 50 mm; Matara district up to 30 mm; and Colombo district up to 10 mm. On the 28th Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalla and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Colombo, Badulla, Monaragala and several regions of Anuradhapura and Gampaha districts received up to 20 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75 mm for Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm for Kurunegala district; and up to 25 mm for Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Badulla, Monaragala and Matara districts. It shows above average rainfall of 25-50 mm for region surrounding the borders of Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall of 25-50 mm is shown for Matale, Kandy Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During February - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Badulla, Hambantota and several regions of Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts. These regions received up to 90 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa district received below average rainfall up to 150 mm; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to ~75 mm in Kandy, Ratnapura, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to ~50 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Batticaloa districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 29th Mar – 4th Apr: Total rainfall between 15-25 mm in Trincomalee district; total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala and Ampara districts; total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Ratnapura, Hambantota, Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalla and Matale districts.
From 5th -11th Apr: Total rainfall between 15-25 mm in Trincomalee district; total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Hambantota, Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalla and Matale districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
31st Mar: Up to 3 mm of Rainfall in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts. Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 65 mm of rainfall in Gampaha, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; 125 mm of rainfall in Colombo district.
1st Apr: Up to 3 mm of Rainfall in Mannar, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
Seasonal Prediction: April to June: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 60-70% likelihood in the western coastal regions and 70-80% likelihood in the rest of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 16, 2017
During mid-March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall and winds in the central and western tropical Pacific continues to suggest a borderline La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through spring 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development during summer or fall.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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