- The WRF model predicts up to 65 mm of rainfall in Matara District on 18th March.
- Between 8-13 Mar: highest rainfalls of 140 mm were recorded on the 12th in Anuradhapura district and on the 13th on Vavuniya district.
- From 5-11 Mar: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while many parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC .
- From 7-13 Mar : up to 11 km/h south easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northwestern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On March 8th Kurunegala and Gampaha districts received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Puttalam district up to 50 mm; Mannar, Kegalla and western regions of Matale districts up to 40 mm; Colombo and several areas of Anuradhapura and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; and Northern regions of Kalutara district up to 20 mm. On the 9th Kumana region of Ampara district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kandy district up to 30 mm; and Hambantota, Kurunegala, Kegalla districts up to 20 mm. On the 10th Anuradhapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kandy district received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 20 mm. On the 11th Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Hambantota and Ratnapura districts up to 50 mm; Kegalla and Kandy districts up to 40 mm; Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Kalutara and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 12th Anuradhapura district received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala district up to 120 mm; Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts up to 80 mm Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Ratnapura and Kegalla districts up to 40 mm; Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Badulla and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. On the 13th Mullaitivu district received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya district up to 90 mm; Mannar, Kegalla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts up to 40 mm; Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy and Galle districts up to 30 mm; and Matara and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 300 mm for Anuradhapura district; up to 200 mm for Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm for Mannar, Puttalam, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara and Hambantota, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 100 mm for Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Kalutara districts. It shows above average rainfall of 200-300 mm for Anuradhapura district; 100-200 mm for Vavuniya, Mannar, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Gampaha, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; 50-100 mm for Puttalam, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Kalutara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During February - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Badulla, Hambantota and several regions of Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts. These regions received up to 90 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa district received below average rainfall up to 150 mm; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to ~75 mm in Kandy, Ratnapura, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to ~50 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Batticaloa districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 15th – 21th Mar: Up to 15 mm rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu districts and North central and Eastern provinces.
From 22nd – 28th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Central Province and Kegalla, Kurunegala, Badulla districts. Up to 15 mm in Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Ratnapura, Monaragala and Gampaha. .
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
17th March: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts. Up to 8 mm rainfall all over the country except some areas of Monaragala, Badulla and Ampara districts.
18th March: Up to 65 mm of rainfall in Matara district. Up to 36 of mm rainfall in Galle, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Up to 8 mm of rainfall in Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalla, Hambantota, districts and Central and Uwa provinces. Up to 3 mm of rainfall in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and some areas of Kurunegala Districts.
Seasonal Prediction: April to June: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the southern region and 60-70% likelihood in the central region of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 9, 2017
During early March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly close to 0.0 OC , in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall in the central and western tropical Pacific remains indicative of a weak La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through May 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development later in the year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northwestern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka for the upcoming 10 days and shall not have a significant impact on rainfall for the following 5 days.
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