- The NCEP model predicts up to 35 mm of rainfall in Kandy on 22nd March to 4th April.
- Between 15-21 Mar: highest rainfall of 60 mm was recorded on the 15th in Gampaha district.
- From 12-18 Mar: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while many parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 14-20 Mar: up to 11 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the north and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On March 15th Gampaha district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Kurunegala and Colombo districts up to 50 mm; Kegalla, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm; Kandy and Galle districts up to 20 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 16th Badulla district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 17th several regions of Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Monaragala districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 18th. On the 19th several regions of Ratnapura, Galle, and Matara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 20th Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar and several areas of Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts received up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 21st.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75 mm for Gampaha, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm for Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Kalutara, Badulla, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25 mm for Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota Colombo districts. It shows above average rainfall of 25-50 mm for Gampaha and Colombo districts; 10-25 mm for Vavuniya, Mannar and Ratnapura districts .Below average rainfall of 10-25 mm Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During February - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Badulla, Hambantota and several regions of Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts. These regions received up to 90 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa district received below average rainfall up to 150 mm; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to ~75 mm in Kandy, Ratnapura, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to ~50 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Batticaloa districts..
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 22nd – 28th Mar: Total rainfall between 5-15 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; total rainfall between 15-25 mm in Trincomalee, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla and Matale districts; total rainfall between 25-35mm in Kandy district.
From 29th Mar – 4th April: Total rainfall between 5-15mm in Gampaha, Puttalam and Ratnapura districts and North province; total rainfall between 15-25mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts; total rainfall between 25-35mm in Matale, Kandy and Badulla districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
24th Mar: Up to 3 mm of Rainfall in Galle district.
25th Mar: Up to 3 mm of Rainfall in Galle district.
Seasonal Prediction: April to June: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 60-70% likelihood in the western coastal regions and 70-80% likelihood in the rest of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 16, 2017
During mid-March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall and winds in the central and western tropical Pacific continues to suggest a borderline La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through spring 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development during summer or fall.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the north and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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