- The WRF model predicts up to 65 mm of rainfall in Ampara district on the 3rd.
- Between 22-28 Feb: highest rainfall of 90 mm was recorded on the 28th in Hambantota district.
- From 19-25 Feb: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded fr om Nuwara Eliya district while many parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 21-27 Feb: up to 18 km/h north easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and western seas of Sri Lanka
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded on the 22nd and 23rd. On the 24th Puttalam, Gampha, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 25th Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura district up to 20 mm; Gampaha and Colombo districts up to 10 mm; and adjacent south eastern sea up to 50 mm of rainfall. On the 26th Kandy, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Hambantota and Galle districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and adjacent south eastern sea received up to 60 mm of rainfall. On the 27th Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala and Kegalla districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha, Batticaloa, Kandy and Badulla districts up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 28th Hambantota district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Puttalam and Kurunegala districts up to 40 mm; Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts up to 20 mm; Ratnapura, Ampara Galle and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and adjacent southern sea received up to 120 mm of rainfall.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75 mm for Hambantota and Matale districts; up to 50 mm for Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala. Kurunegala, Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 25 mm for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Colombo districts. It shows above average rainfall of 50-100 mm for Hambantota district; and above average rainfall of 25-50 mm for Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During February - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Badulla, Hambantota and several regions of Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts. These regions received up to 90 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa district received below average rainfall up to 150 mm; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to ~75 mm in Kandy, Ratnapura, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to ~50 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Batticaloa districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 1st – 7th Mar: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Ampara and Anuradhapura districts; and between 15-25 mm in Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala and Matale districts.
From 8th – 14th Mar: Total rainfall between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam and Matale districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
3rd Mar: Rainfall up to 65 mm in Ampara district; up to 36 mm of rainfall in Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Trincomalee, Hambantota, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
4th Mar: Rainfall up to 65 mm rainfall in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Colombo, Gampaha and Kegalla districts; and up to 36 Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Galle, Hambantota, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 8 mm in many parts of the island.
Seasonal Prediction: March to May: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the southern region and 60-70% likelihood in the northern region of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 16, 2017
During mid-February 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was close to 0.0C, in the ENSO-neutral range. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, one or two still show a weak La Niña pattern. In particular, the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall in the central and western tropical Pacific remains indicative of a weak La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through May 2017, with a chance for El Niño development later in the year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and western seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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